‘It is always possible saboteurs will swing into action’

‘When it comes to India Pakistan relations, seminal moments of progress invariably bring out saboteurs of peace whether we’re talking about fresh provocations along the Canada Goose sale LoC, or even a canada goose clearance sale terror attack in India.’

canada goose clearance Few canada goose store observers of developments in South Asia are as prolific as the astute Michael Kugelman. canada goose clearance

cheap Canada Goose Kugelman, the Senior Associate Canada Goose Jackets for South and Southeast Asia at the Woodrow Wilson Centre, the Washington, DC, think tank, is the go to analyst when journalists seek clarity on America and its complicated relationship with Afghanistan, India and Pakistan. cheap Canada Goose

canada goose black friday sale IMAGE: Muhammad Saeed of the Lashkar e Tayiba, left, and Masood Azhar of the Jaish e Mohammad, right. ‘It’s worth remembering that some top anti India terrorists who had been quiet in recent years, such as Masood Azhar of Jaish e Mohammed, have suddenly come back on the canadian goose jacket public scene over the last year or so,’ says Michael Kugelman. canada goose black friday sale

canada goose How do canada goose you account for the sudden momentum in India Pakistan relations after the deep freeze last August? If you were to enlist Canada Goose online five reasons that provoked the change, what would they be? canada goose

The first reason can be discerned from the past. The history of India Pakistan relations canada goose black friday sale is one of ups and downs. These two countries have had their share of war and hostility but they’ve also had warm periods.

Just a few years ago, in 2011 and 2012, there were high level meetings, cricket diplomacy, and all kinds of goodwill.

Canada Goose Outlet So in a sense you can say that after a very long down period in 2015, this relationship was due for a big boost. And that’s canada goose deals exactly what it got. Canada Goose Outlet

uk canada goose The second reason is a personnel issue. Pakistan recently appointed a just retired general as its canada goose coats new national security advisor. India previously had little incentive to negotiate with Pakistan’s civilian leadership because it lacked any control or influence over India policy. uk canada goose

Canada Goose sale The calculus has changed a bit now, given that one of Pakistan’s senior most civilian leaders now has a direct tie canada goose coats on sale to the army. Canada Goose sale

In other words, from India’s perspective, it simply makes more sense to sit down with the Pakistanis now because there’s an expectation that negotiations can be more substantive.

buy canada goose jacket cheap The third reason is Modi’s change of heart. My sense is that Modi, perhaps sobered by his party’s shellacking in Bihar, or simply because it was clear that bellicose statements weren’t getting his government anywhere, decided that it was time to start thinking in a serious way about some degree of renewed engagement with Pakistan. buy canada goose jacket cheap

Modi, let’s not forget, took office last year wanting to improve relations with India’s neighbours, including Pakistan and yet this objective got sidetracked at some point.

The fourth reason is the shifting calculus of the Pakistani military. After several months spent slinging allegations and accusations against India (which India was happily to reciprocate), the military may have decided that enough was enough, and that it was time to seek engagement anew.

canada goose coats on sale We can assume that an ultimate aim of Rawalpindi is to get the sides talking again while keeping its eyes locked firmly on the prize a resolution of the Kashmir dispute. canada goose coats on sale

The fifth and perhaps most consequential reason for the sudden warming period in India Pakistan relations is none other than Uncle Sam. I’m sure that Washington has applied consistent pressure on both countries to resume dialogue.

Canada Goose Coats On Sale In fact, we can assume that the series of Canada Goose Outlet events that culminated in Modi’s historic visit the NSA talks in Thailand, the Sharif Modi chat in Paris, and then the resumption of dialogue announcement at the Heart of Asia conference can all be attributed to US prodding. Canada Goose Coats On Sale

Washington is fixated on the ISIS threat, and the last thing it wants is another war on the subcontinent or even the dangerous distraction of relations between two nuclear rivals on tenterhooks.

IMAGE: ‘We can assume that canada goose clearance the series of events that culminated in Modi’s historic visit the NSA talks in Thailand, the Sharif cheap Canada Goose Modi chat in Paris, and then the resumption of dialogue announcement at the Heart of Asia conference can all be attributed to US prodding,’ says Michael Kugelman.

canada goose uk black friday Were you startled by Mr Modi’s visit to Lahore? The Indians claim it was a spur of the moment decision, taken after the two prime ministers spoke on Christmas morning. Do you believe that? canada goose uk black friday

Or do you think this visit was weeks in the making? Has there been a similar gobsmacking visit by a leader to an ‘enemy’ country in recent times?

canadian goose jacket I’m certainly surprised, but not totally shocked. There has been a rapid intensification of high level diplomacy in recent weeks, and there had been hints that Modi could visit Pakistan in due course though we all expected that visit would come well into next year, not at the end of the current year. canadian goose jacket

Canada Goose Parka I can’t imagine this was canada goose outlet a last minute decision, simply because of all the logistical and security precautions that would have to be in place some time in advance. Pakistani media reports have said buy canada goose jacket cheap that air traffic control in Lahore had been warned about the visit one day earlier, and I’m sure that’s true. Canada Goose Parka

canada goose uk shop I wouldn’t be surprised if key stakeholders on both sides, and especially in Pakistan, were aware even earlier perhaps as far back as the Heart of canadagoosejacketonlines.ca Asia conference. canada goose uk shop

All this said, let’s be clear. This visit, important as it was, is not a diplomatic breakthrough for the ages. It was really more of a courtesy call albeit one fraught with soaring levels of symbolism and considerable significance.

canada goose uk outlet Modi did not come to hold substantive discussions with (Nawaz) Sharif. He did not come to present a peace plan. This was not a Nixon goes to China type of thing. canada goose uk outlet

Rather, Modi came to personally wish PM Sharif a happy birthday, and to mark the occasion of Sharif’s granddaughter’s wedding. Certainly the two spoke about various issues, but mainly they talked about the need to keep talking. That’s important, but no game changer.